Round 2 vs Jean Marc | WW

Jean Marc is a reasonably solid player, someone you’d be comfortable seeing at round 3 or 4 if you’re good enough to win a tournament. The most scary thing is that he runs very unconventional teams. When I saw the team, I thought my tournament run was pretty much over. The night before the tournament, Raghav Collin Kimo and I were testing Psychic Spam vs our team and we barely managed to find a matchup with Tapu Koko. It came down to making a bunch of reads correct in a row, which was possible but gross.
This matchup ended up being a little bit more feasible because Jean Marc was Swords Dance Ultra Necrozma, which let me reduce the damage a little with Incineroar. I ended up making a few good calls and Swords Dance Rayquaza swept pretty hard.

Top 8 vs Ashton Cox | LWW

▶️ Watch the match here!

This was possibly the best matchup I could have played in Top 8. Playing Wolfe was scary, Melvin beat Raghav round 1, Jean Paul beat Raghav and I, Graham had beat me twice, and Kyle and Pado both had Kommo-o, which I think is scarier for my team. Raghav and I were prepping during lunch before Top 8, so we came up with a gameplan. Ashton had mentioned offhand that he hadn’t brought Tapu Koko or Metagross at all, so I thought he just didn’t want them, not that he hadn’t fought any RayOgre. We decided Incineroar Kyogre with Rayquaza Metagross in the back was pretty good vs Kangaskhan Tornadus Xerneas Groudon and could answer the pressure, especially as Metagross could take an Earth Power.

Before the game started, Ashton and I were bantering, just having a nice chat. He said that if he Z danced and stuff it wasn’t personal. We just had a nice time talking to each other during the set. 

The video is linked above, so let’s go through it turn by turn.

I sent out Incineroar Kyogre into Tapu Koko Metagross. I had assumed that Ashton would lead Kangaskhan Tornadus so I was a little surprised. I knew his Tapu Koko had some HP investment as he had brought it against Graham on the side stream, but I thought it might just be bulky Fairy Z as I didn’t really know what other item it could be.

Turn 1: I didn’t really know what was going on, so I covered for a potential AV Tapu Koko by switching Incineroar to Rayquaza, forcing damage if Ashton switched out the Tapu Koko. If Ashton Volt Switched, he could go into Xerneas but I would get guaranteed damage on it, even if Groudon didn’t come in. Ashton double protected instead, which was very reasonable.

Turn 2: Since Ashton revealed Protect I was very certain on the Fairium Z read, as opposed to any other set. Kangaskhan Tornadus is pretty weak to Rayquaza on the whole, so having a tech like that for it makes sense. I thus thought my Kyogre wasn’t under any threat, so I switched Rayquaza out to Incineroar to get Fake Out and positioning pressure for next turn and just Origin Pulsed, as there was no way in my mind that Ashton was switching into Groudon. Ashton doubled my Kyogre with Guardian of Alola and Stomping Tantrum, which I was not expecting.

Turn 3: I sent in Rayquaza because my Metagross in the back wasn’t really going to do anything. My only chance, but a reasonable one, of winning was to get some boosts on my Rayquaza, so I Fake Out the Metagross and Swords Dance. Ashton slows my Rayquaza’s speed so that if he KO’s another Pokémon, Xerneas will outspeed my Rayquaza even if it megas. 

Turn 4: I think I made a mistake here in retrospect. I decided that because my Rayquaza was slow and +2 Extreme Speed doesn’t OHKO Tapu Koko, I needed another Swords Dance. However, I possibly could have won with keeping +2 non-mega Rayquaza and Mega Metagross in the back. I was also scared because Ashton had the double power Stomping Tantrum and could knock out Incineroar if I protected the Rayquaza.

Turn 5: I don’t want to reveal any damage calcs, so I just forfeit. It’s worth considering the benefit of taking all the time to think about the next game and just ignoring the Pokémon, because it’s harder to think about the next game if you’re the one on the winning side. However, I felt like I had enough of an idea about what I was going to do in the 2nd game that it wasn’t worth revealing anything.

At some point during this game I got a little frustrated, because I had been playing so well all tournament long, and both games that were shown on stream were going to be of me getting eviscerated with little to no counterplay, so I really needed to think of a plan.

Going into Game 2, we take a small break to calm our nerves. This gives me a bit more time to think about my plan for game 2, which I needed as I got completely eviscerated. This was where my Rayquaza spread really hurt me, as my Rayquaza’s HP was not divisible by 4. That meant that if Ashton went for the Guardian of Alola onto it, its berry wouldn’t get activated. 

I also knew that because Ashton wasn’t bringing his Kangaskhan or his Tornadus (he was definitely bringing the same thing into Game 2 after seeing how well it worked in game 1) he had almost no way to stop Trick Room. The lead then was going to be Mimikyu Incineroar, so I could Fake Out the Metagross to prevent the 30% flinch chance and also not let Mimikyu get KO’d Turn 1. The question was, which Pokémon do I drop? Surely it had to be Metagross, as I don’t think Incineroar Mimikyu Rayquaza Metagross is good enough against Groudon. But then I am missing my Fairy resist, and so I’m going to have to tempo out Ashton’s Xerneas. However, I felt like I was going to be able to do that, either by setting up a Swords Dance or by getting the Let’s Snuggle Forever off onto it. +2 Rayquaza deals a lot of damage, and Xerneas can’t OHKO Kyogre, so I have a lot of ways to get the chip I need, especially as Ashton doesn’t have Intimidate. I spend all of preview thinking about this, decide it’s a reasonable gameplan, and lock it in

Turn 1: I make the play I had planned out, Ashton breaks my Disguise and brings in Xerneas. I’m not sure why he brought Xerneas in over Groudon, but maybe he didn’t want my Flare Blitz next turn to be sun boosted, and didn’t want me to be able to switch in Kyogre on the Groudon.

Turn 2: I thought Ashton would be a little scared of the Mimikyu and might switch Xerneas out to Groudon or just Protect it, and Iron Head the Mimikyu. I went for Flare Blitz on the Metagross to do as much damage as possible to it, and Protected the Mimikyu, trying to bait out Ashton’s protect. Ashton Iron Heads to cover whatever my Mimikyu is doing and Geomancies, trying to get protects later. 

Turn 3: I think that Ashton’s aggressive play might have come from him not thinking the Mimikyu could do anything to the Xerneas. I also know that if the Xerneas Protects on my Z move I can double into it later to take it out. I decide to Z the Xerneas in case Ashton continues his aggression, and Flare Blitz the Metagross to cover for Iron Head + Protect again. Ashton switches into Groudon which takes a chunk, and protects the Xerneas, which I can tell takes around 25%, meaning that Let’s Snuggle Forever with the Fairy Aura boost will knock it out from full, or with a tiny bit of chip.

Turn 4: Xerneas has just protected, so I decide to double into it. If the Xerneas gets knocked out, my Rayquaza has free reign over the game. I also can’t really do anything to the Groudon, so there’s no real point in punishing a double Protect; the best odds for me of winning the game are to punish the Xerneas and knock it out. I don’t know precisely how much damage Flare Blitz in the sun will do, so I go with Play Rough in addition. Ashton makes his best play, which is go for the double protect + Eruption. In classic Ashton fashion, he gets it, and Ashton and I start joking around. Eruption doesn’t knock out either of my Pokémon as, contrary to what Aaron said, it was not full powered (the Flare Blitz chip put in a lot of work).

Turn 5: Ok. He got the double. And he is Ashton Cox. But I *have* to double the Xerneas anyway. I make the same move as last turn, and Ashton goes for the triple. We’re joking as you can see about how he doesn’t get it, and I pop off. Flare Blitz connects, does a billion, and activates my berry. Ashton’s saying that the Play Rough can still miss, though and I’m just hoping to god that it doesn’t and that he’s not as lucky as he really is. Ashton really is that lucky, Play Rough does miss, and I laugh and fist bump with Ashton (it helps silence the pain). Ashton goes for Earth Power on my Incineroar, leaving it on 1 which was very frustrating, and Ashton points this out.

If my Incineroar had been KO’d, I would have been able to send in Rayquaza and get a Swords Dance to go with my Shadow Sneak, putting me in a really good position to take the game. I’m not sure whether it would have been better or worse than the position turned out, but it would have made sense in a tempo manner.

Turn 6: Even though Ashton could Protect this turn, I go for the Shadow Sneak to cover Xerneas attacking. I also switch Incineroar into Kyogre to prevent Groudon from going for a potential Eruption combined with Xerneas’ Protect. Ashton makes a reasonable play, as I haven’t revealed Shadow Sneak, and attacks with Xerneas while switching in Tapu Koko. This punishes my Kyogre switch in pretty well, as Ashton is able to switch in Groudon.

Turn 7: At this point I’m pretty sure I’ve won, as my Rayquaza beats all of his Pokémon, especially with his Metagross at 5%. However, Rayquaza doesn’t have a HP stat that’s divisible by 4. That means that if Rayquaza is hit by Guardian of Alola, I lose the game, and it’s technically still possible for me to lose regardless. I decide that switching out Kyogre into Incineroar and Trick Rooming is pretty safe, as if Ashton Eruptions I get to set up a Swords Dance with Rayquaza and have it carry the rest of the game

However, I’m not so sure about this in retrospect. It might have been a straight 50/50. If Ashton just Eruption and Electrowebs or something, then he can go for Guardian of Alola + Earth Power into the Kyogre next turn, or Guardian of Alola + Eruption/Overheat on the Rayquaza, or something like that. However, I was pretty sure that Ashton didn’t know my HP stat, and it’s giving me more 50/50s to win.
But let’s consider what happens if I switch my Rayquaza into the Mimikyu slot and go for Origin Pulse (and it hits, potentially Water Spout is better because it’s accurate, you can decide for yourself). Let’s assume that Ashton punishes this optimally and KO’s Kyogre. I get the free switch to Incineroar, and can Fake Out the Tapu Koko + mega (or non-mega if I want to preserve Strong Winds for later potentially, to help beat Tapu Koko’s Electric attacks) Swords Dance. I think it’s pretty favorable for me to, from that point, just click Extreme Speed on every Pokémon. The only thing I’d be worried about is an Overheat from Groudon, so I might go for a second Swords Dance if I had the opportunity. Mimikyu’s slight pressure on the Metagross with Shadow Sneak and its ability to sneak my Rayquaza so 2 Nature Madnesses activates berry might well give me the win. 

I think part of my reluctance to switch to Rayquaza was that I hadn’t revealed it yet, and I wanted to not reveal info to Ashton about the 4 I had brought. In Top 4 of worlds in 2016 Edu mentioned that he had brought Hitmontop in Game 2 and I was able to make plans in Game 3 because of that information. 

Anyway, I switch Kyogre into Incineroar and go for Trick Room, and Ashton Guardian of Alola’s the Incineroar for 3 damage, not 1 as Duy says, and Ashton forfeits.

We had been joking around a bunch during that game, so Ashton says that the next one will be serious. I thought I had been taking it seriously, but I decided to be a little quieter.

Going into Game 3 I kind of expected Kangaskhan and Tornadus. However, I felt that if I got aggressive early with a potential Fake Out + Z move, I could force in the Xerneas early and chip it with Play Rough and the like to put it into Extreme Speed range. I also knew that I had nothing else that was going to beat Metagross Tapu Koko, so I went with the same lead as game 2.

Turn 1: I was expecting a mixup sort of like this from Ashton, but he didn’t bring the Tornadus. That makes my position a lot better. I decide that Kangaskhan almost certainly has Scrappy and that Ashton is going to Fake Out the Mimikyu. I have Protect and have revealed it, but the risk-reward on attacking Incineroar is so low that Ashton makes the super safe play of switching out Tapu Koko into Xerneas and going for Fake Out. The theory behind this play is presumably that after this he can double up on the Mimikyu with a Bite + Moonblast to potentially knock it out, or just exert pressure with his Xerneas in a way the Tapu Koko and Groudon couldn’t. Ashton hard switches Tapu Koko as opposed to Volt Switching to prevent me from Faking Out the Tapu Koko and trapping it in. That was a really smart play that managed risk reward well because the Volt Switch damage isn’t worth the potential risk of not putting enough pressure on Mimikyu on the following turn. I U-turn because I think that I have to be aggressive, especially considering that my Rayquaza speed ties with the Kangaskhan. I also get the second switch which is useful. I go into Rayquaza because I’m trying to bait the Xerneas into attacking or doing something silly, or just baiting it into being scared of the double up from Rayquaza and Mimikyu.

Turn 2: I have Rayquaza Mimikyu in, in front of Kangaskhan and Xerneas. Because of the damage my Let’s Snuggle Forever did in Game 2, and because of the Rayquaza bait, I expect Ashton to be defensive or potentially aggressive, but by attacking into the Rayquaza, with his Xerneas. So I switch Rayquaza out into Incineroar in order to get Fake Out support for my Mimikyu and go for the Play Rough onto the Kangaskhan, which will KO if the Xerneas stays in due to Fairy Aura. Play Rough also plays around a potential Roar to stop Trick Room.
Ashton goes for Geomancy, in a very unexpected play, and Bites my Mimikyu. Thankfully, he flinched it, so I didn’t have to deal with Groudon and +2 Xerneas the next turn, which would have ended the game, as Eruption would KO Mimikyu from that range, and so would Moonblast.
Play Rough was probably a throw, or an excessively aggressive play.

Turn 3: This is the tricky and game deciding turn. I have Fake Out live. My Mimikyu has its Z active. Xerneas is at +2, and Kangaskhan has Bite and Roar. Pause here on the video and try to put yourself in my position. What is Ashton going to do?

I’ll tell you how I thought of the position, but there are many different ways to think about it, and ways that you might think about it are also interesting, and I’d love to have you tweet them at me if you want!

In this position, I have Fake Out pressure. Therefore, Ashton has a few plays. First, he can Protect Xerneas and Roar Mimikyu. This loses to Fake Out the Kang + TR, very quickly. Ashton can Protect Xerneas and Bite Mimikyu, which is roughly the same play. Ashton can Roar the Mimikyu and Moonblast it, or he can Bite the Mimikyu and Moonblast it. 

Protect Xerneas + Bite Mimikyu is almost never going to happen; Roar is way better. It forces the Mimikyu out unless I knock out the Kangaskhan, but if I knock out the Kangaskhan, Ashton pretty much just wins on the spot. Roar the Mimikyu and Moonblast and Bite and Moonblast are pretty equivalent? Bite is a 51% to flinch and covers both my options, so if you think that there’s a 50/50 chance or better that I’m going to attack with Mimikyu, or want to cover your options, then that’s super reasonable. So Ashton’s most likely play is to Bite Mimikyu and attack, or Roar and Protect.

I thought Roar and Protect was pretty unlikely. This is where it gets a bit fuzzy; I’m trying to describe how I felt in the moment and it definitely was not this analytic. I think that basically the risk-reward of going for Protect on the Xerneas is really bad. There’s a decent chance I try to aggressively set up Trick Room by going for Fake Out on the Kangaskhan. Ashton has shown that he can be pretty aggressive with Xerneas, but also pretty passive, and I think the Protect is just a bit too obvious coming out from him. Ashton also has advantages on percentages by going for Bite, so attacking is a reasonable play.

However, this wasn’t really how I thought in the moment. I just kinda had a gut feeling that he really didn’t want to Protect with Xerneas there. I thought that this turn was my best chance to take the game and I thought Ashton was likely to cover for me calling a Protect, so I just freaked out a little and locked it in.
I was kinda surprised that he went for Bite instead of Roar, because I thought Trick Room was scarier; if I Fake Out the Xerneas and TR there I’m still in a good position and so I think that this play was risky, but covered the attack better. It’s possible that the best play from Ashton was to commit, but flinches are nice, and a good crutch, and Ashton is very lucky.
Fake Out goes off, Bite doesn’t flinch, and I KO the Xerneas. 

The game is pretty much over at this point, but I really hate throwing so I take the rest of it really seriously so nothing can possibly go wrong.
Ashton sends in Tapu Koko instead of Groudon in order to get his Fake Out back in and to preserve weather in the back. 

Turn 4: I don’t really think that hard about why Ashton sent in Tapu Koko. I decide that Trick Room wins me the game 100% of the time if I can get it off, and if Ashton goes for a Roar, then I get a free switch into one of my damage dealers in front of a -2 Kangaskhan. I decide to Flare Blitz the Kangaskhan though, because if I can KO it before it uses Roar that would be great. Ashton decides to let me get off the potential Trick Room, and I do some chip to Groudon.

Turn 5: Switching when you have this much of an advantage is a mistake. There’s no reason to let your Pokémon get crit, especially when the risk-reward is so bad for Ashton on Faking Out Incineroar. Sure, I could get Kyogre in, or miss Play Rough and sac Incineroar for no damage, but Kyogre gets to come in for free and then click Water Spout on a Pokémon that can’t Protect, and I have Rayquaza in the back to clean up. 

Turn 6: I realize that Ashton is the luckiest human on earth, so I need to have a gameplan for if both of his Pokémon get the triple protect. I decided that the way to do this is to make sure he’s forced to Protect on this turn by doubling the Tapu Koko with Water Spout and Play Rough. Once Ashton has protected, I can get guaranteed damage while switching in my Rayquaza next turn to set up some Swords Dances as Trick Room goes on to clean up with the Rayquaza.

Turn 7: Ashton has just Protected with both Pokémon, so I initiate step 2 of the plan. If Ashton doesn’t Protect with his Tapu Koko here I’m still fine because I have a really good chance to get damage onto his Groudon and I also have Mimikyu in the back for some follow up damage. Ashton fails both his double Protects, I knock out the Groudon and bring Tapu Koko down to basically nothing. Ashton forfeits.

After this game, Ashton told me to cool it on the popping off which was reasonable, and I apologized on camera. I wanted to try to get the crowd to cheer for when I was winning, and I also wanted to pop off when I hit my Play Rough, but I see how that was disrespectful to Ashton and I will do my best to be more respectful in the future.

After this set my friends were super happy, and Collin and Mancuso gave me their Mimikyu plushes for stream (Mancuso actually gave his to me permanently, which is awesome of him and I am treasuring it).

I got to watch the Top 8 set between Graham and Melvin just hoping and praying for Melvin to complete the 3-0 over Graham. While I was doing this I got my friends to try and come up with gameplans. Enosh was working on one, and the Australians (YT, Akanuma, and Kimura) wanted to help me with the matchup (after Graham had won). It was the most adorable thing. I told them what the matchup was and they all gave a kind of distressed sigh. I was talking to Enosh and YT walked over to suggest a plan. I told him that I had tried it and that it didn’t work and explained what had happened last time and they let out another sigh and started thinking harder. Eventually they came up with the plan to bring Incineroar over Kyogre, and lead Rayquaza Tapu Koko and turn 1 switch Rayquaza into Incineroar and Volt Switch the Lunala to break the Shadow Shield. This Intimidates the Medicham, which is important, gives me Fake Out pressure, and gives me a chance to set up once the Tapu Koko gets off the field. I brought Mimikyu in the back to set up Trick Room. Having Tapu Koko in the back was really important because I needed to have a way to remove the Psychic Terrain, because priority attacks were critical in how I could win the set. I didn’t really have a gameplan for Game 2, but I decided I could work that out after I saw how Game 1 went.